10.Converting Desires into Outcomes

10.Converting Desires into Outcomes

Convert Desires into Outcomes

The core of innovation is satisfying desires. Desires are imprecise, subjective, personal, and frequently change. That makes desires unsuitable to directly use for innovation.

What a person wants changes based on the situation. Time, place, and activity all change the situation. Different people value different things in similar situations. Their desires can be satisfied differently from someone else's desires.

The subjective nature of desires makes it difficult for even customers to express their desires. Not being able to accurately express desires makes it hard for customers to ask for what they want or to explain why a product or service didn't satisfy their desires.

To solve the problem of subjective desires, we convert subjective desires into objective Outcomes. “Customers buy products and services to help them get jobs done.” (Ulwick, 2005, p.xvii) Put in the context of performing the job, the subjective desires can be expressed as objective Outcomes. Using the product produces an Outcome. When all the required Outcomes have a desired State, the job is done and the desire is satisfied.

Desires are always in the context of doing some “job”. We call that context the Scenario. The required Outcomes for a Scenario always remain the same. Customers can satisfy their desires in very different ways. They can choose different Scenarios to satisfy their desires, however, the Outcomes for each Scenario always remain the same. Some people relax from exercising while others find reading a book relaxing. The fact that a person chooses exercising or reading a book to relax does not change the basic requirements of those two very different activities.

Instead of trying to satisfy subjective desires, we allow the users to choose tasks that satisfy their desires and we satisfy the objective requirements of the task. Desires can be broken down into one or more objective Outcomes by describing the Scenario and each criteria needed to satisfy the desires of that Scenario. Illustration 43: Objective Criteria is a flowchart of how to describe a Scenario and Objective Criteria.

Outcome Railroad Diagram

An example of a Scenario is eating sticky peanut butter:

When eating peanut butter, I don't like peanut butter sticking to the roof of my mouth.

This describes a specific situation, “eating peanut butter.” It also gives a general description of the goal, “not sticking to the roof of my mouth.” Now lets write an Objective Outcome for that goal:

If I lick the roof of my mouth less than 3 licks I will be satisfied.

This is an observable and measurable criteria. The number of times the person licks can be observed and you can measure it by counting the number of licks. The objective criteria both allows you to measure the level of satisfaction and it describes exactly what needs to be done to satisfy the desire.

The criteria has three parts.

  • Object
  • Direction
  • State

One way to make peanut butter less sticky is to make it thin like a liquid. Runny peanut butter is not desirable so we should add another criteria.

When eating peanut butter, I don't like peanut butter sticking to the roof of my mouth.

If I lick the roof of my mouth less than 3 licks and
the peanut butter is more than as firm as jelly I will be satisfied.

This second criteria has a less scientific unit but it is something that can be measured. The customer might not be able to give exact units but the description is accurate enough for innovators to make a comparison or possibly calculate an actual measurement to use. In this case some measurement of viscosity is likely appropriate but all you need is a consistent criteria that can be observed and reliably communicated.

The stickiness of peanut butter is one aspect of eating peanut butter. The flavor, smell, and visual appearance are other factors that may need to be considered.

The criteria has two parts. The first part broadly but objectively describes the desire, “I don't like peanut butter sticking to the roof of my mouth.” The second part is the specific criterion for satisfying the desire. For problem solving you need the specific criterion; however, for innovation work you will mainly use the descriptive portion. This involves restating it in a more generalized form such as:

The peanut butter must have the correct texture.

When stated this way it is called an Outcome. Outcomes are composed of 7 Elements: Object, Begin States, End States, Actions, Tools, Conditions, and Resources. The Object is the feature that possesses a State that we are trying to optimize. In this example the Object is “texture.” The number of licks and the viscosity are States.

Emerging Expectations

Since innovation must satisfy unmet desires it's aiming at a continually moving target. The unmet desires of today will be the bare minimum requirements of tomorrow. Innovation must stay ahead of the desires so you have the time to design, develop, and deliver the innovation at the right moment.

The way to stay ahead is to focus on the criteria several steps ahead of the currently available products. You can do this by imagining the ideal product then looking backwards at each step needed to reach that ideal product from the current product.

Current Product to Ideal

Every Outcome has an ideal perfect criteria. As innovation occurs, each of the Outcomes moves closer to the Ideal State. The criterion needed for each successive innovation will be closer to that ideal until all the Outcomes achieve the theoretical maximum achievable state. This is why we don't specify the specific criterion for Outcomes when doing innovation. We are always trying to improve on the current level until we reach the ideal.

Do not get too far ahead of the market.

Each innovation improves one or more Outcomes enough to satisfy the emerging expectations. It is important to not try to offer products that are ahead of the market. Design products 2 steps ahead, develop products 1 step ahead, and deliver just-in-time. Products that are too far ahead will often require extra marketing expense to promote or won't have sufficiently advanced technology or infrastructure to affordably deliver the product.

To improve an Outcome an innovation must do one of the 3 things: maximize the State, minimize the State, or match a specific State. You will notice those are three of the five directions from the Alternatives Grid, Direct +, Indirect -, and Stable =.

You can improve an Outcome by increasing, decreasing, or equaling the desired result. For example, if the goal is to heat something, an innovation might be to decrease the time it takes to heat it. That would be minimizing the time.

Another way of improving an Outcome is to minimize, maximize, or match the range differences for the State. Instead of looking at a single State, a range of States might be desirable. When you select clothing you typically aren't maximizing or minimizing a look. You want clothing that can fit with a wide range of looks and work with other clothing you own. You want to maximize the range of your wardrobe.

Precision components must control size and position to fit together. However, it is not necessary to have the exact size and position as long as all the components are close to the same. The goal is to minimize the range of sizes and positions for all the components.

In the game of baseball the desired State is for the batter to hit the ball away from where players on the other team can catch it. This is a type of matching range. The criteria will use the words “not equals.”

More on Outcomes

Outcomes are not an exact science. It takes significant practice to become proficient at writing Outcomes.

To quickly gain expertise in writing Outcomes attend a Predictive Innovation® workshop. The Predictive Innovation® website has a list of self-paced, instructor led online, and in-person training options to help you gain expertise.

Chapter 9Chapter 11

7. Basics of Predictive Innovation

7. Basics of Predictive Innovation


Predictive Innovation makes it possible to accurately understand what customers desire now and in the future and how to overcome technical challenges to satisfying those desires. In this way it merges marketing, engineering and business strategy. The key is how it breaks down systems into easy to manage dimensions. All innovation and problem solving uses three specific dimensions:

  • Outcomes
  • 7-Elements
  • 15-Alternatives

By using these three specific dimensions, all the innovations for any product or service can be accurately described even if current technology can't build it.

Height, Width, Depth

Physical objects can be described using height, width, and depth. Similarly, systems can be described using the three dimensions: Outcomes, 7-Elements, and 15-Alternatives.

Outcomes

Outcome is the result of something happening. For Predictive Innovation we use a broader and more formal meaning.

Outcome is an observable state resulting from a cause.

Speed, color, or temperature are observable States. A State can also be an event that did or did not happen. The State of any Outcome is classified into one of three categories:

  • desired
  • undesired
  • neutral

Most systems can be described using between 5 and 9 Outcomes. If a system is complex it might require dividing the system into smaller sub-systems to be manageable.

When each of the Outcomes of a system are in the desired State the overall goal is achieved.

Predictive Innovation uses Outcome Diagrams to graphically represent the systems for satisfying people's desires. Outcome diagrams are a type of flow chart. Instead of showing steps in a process it displays all the conditions or “if” statements to achieve the overall goal. In words an Outcome diagram says:

If A and B and C Then my desires are satisfied for this Scenario.

7-Elements

Elements
Elements


Chapter 6Chapter 8

6. Dimensions of Predictive Innovation

6. Dimensions of Predictive Innovation

Dimensions of Predictive Innovation

There are 6 dimensions used in Predictive Innovation. Finding What, How, When, and Where primarily deal with 3 of these dimensions. Why and Who requires more depth of all 6 dimensions. The 6 dimensions are:

  1. Actors – are people involved in making and using innovations
  2. Desires – are the focus of innovation
  3. Scenarios – are the boundaries of a set of desires
  4. Alternatives – the ways of satisfying desires
  5. Outcomes – are the objective criteria that defines satisfaction
  6. Elements – are the detailed parts of an Outcome
Actors

Actors

There are 8 types of Actors. Each Actor can be a single person or multiple people. There is always at least one person who is the User. Users are the central focus of innovation. If the users' desires are not satisfied innovation fails. The 8 types of Actors are:

Customer

User
Beneficiary
Decider
Payer

Provider

Designer
Builder
Seller
Communicator

Customers are divided into four distinct roles: Beneficiary, User, Buyer, and Payer. Roles can be performed by one or more people but someone performs each of the roles. The desires of the person acting in that role are different from the desires related to the other roles.

Users are people who use the product or service. There must be at least one User. Satisfying the desires of the User is essential to innovation. Examples of Users' desires are:

  • How well the product performs the task
  • Feelings related to using the product.

Beneficiaries experience the benefits of the product or service. In most cases the User and the Beneficiary are the same person but not always. Products used in performing a service have a different User than the Beneficiary.

Deciders make the decision to purchase the product or service. Examples of Deciders' desires are:

  • price
  • warranty
  • where to purchase the product

Payers supply the money or materials for the innovation. For consumer products the User, Buyer and Payer are often the same person. In business these are usually three different people. Examples of Payers' desires are:

  • Return on Investment
  • Total cost
  • Achieving a larger strategy

Provider is divided into four roles:

  • designer
  • builder
  • seller
  • communicator

Provider can be divided differently but these four provide a sufficiently accurate description to understand the process. Just like customers these could be a single person or multiple people. The provider could also be the same person as the customer and each of the roles could be shared by people acting in other roles. So the User could be Builder and the other 6 roles be someone else.

Designers convert desires into actionable designs. This frequently is more than one person. Examples of Designers' desires are:

  • Know criteria to satisfy desires of Actors
  • Access to technology
  • Interesting challenge

Builders convert design into real products. For services the builder does the work. Builders are often many different people. Examples of Builders' desires are:

  • Ease of production
  • Tools needed
  • Start up costs

Sellers deliver the product or service to the User. The Seller is involved in the purchase transaction. Examples of Sellers' desires are:

  • Size of market
  • Quantity discounts
  • Turn over
  • Profit margins
  • Hassles of delivering products or services

Communicator gathers information and translates between Actors. Examples of Communicators' desires are:

  • Know the desires of Actors
  • Able to reach other Actors
  • Accuracy of communication

Customers act as more than just Users. There are markets and innovations for each Actor in a Scenario. Innovation starts by satisfying Users.

Chapter 5Chapter 7

5. Prerequisites

There are several concepts that are helpful to understand in order to get the most out of Predictive Innovation. This section covers these concepts.

Functional Distinctions

You've probably seen products with long lists of features that don't have much value for the primary function of the product. Some products have differences in the primary function but the differences are so small it doesn't matter. Even large differences that don't relate to the purpose of the product do not mean much to users. The important differences are those that noticeably affect the function. These are Functional Distinctions.

The purpose and the result determine Functional Distinctions. The intended goal of using the product determines which functions it must perform.

For a product that is used by blind people, the color does not matter. However, if the product is used by blind people to show sighted people they are blind, such as a white cane with a red tip, color is very important.

Thermometer
Thermometer

Sometimes the amount causes a Functional Distinction. More or less of the same thing often doesn't have a significant effect but there can be differences of amount that cause a functional difference.

Water is a requirement of life but if you have too much you can die. Same thing with heat. Too little heat and you freeze to death, too hot and you burn. There are many Functional Distinctions of scale in science. Water below 0°C freezes and is a solid. Between 0°C and 100° C water is a liquid. Over 100°C water is a gas. Solids, liquids, and gasses each have very different properties and function differently.


Chapter 4Chapter 6

4. What is Innovation?

4.What is Innovation

The word “innovation” is so widely used and misused it has lost some of its meaning. It is essential that you understand what is meant by innovation. This book defines innovation as:

Profitably satisfy an unmet desire”

The essential words in that definition are satisfy and desire. People have desires. All innovation starts with people. The primary person is the user. What desire does the user have that they want to be satisfied? Understanding users' desires is the crucial first step to innovation.

Inventing does not equal innovating. There are many inventions that don't satisfy an unmet desire. Those inventions might be novel and even do something better than any other way, but if no one desires it done better, the invention will fail as an innovation.

Furthermore, if the product or service never gets to the user it can't satisfy the desire. Unused products don't innovate. Products can fail to get to users because of many reasons including: it's never built, the users never find out about it, or it's too expensive.

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